Israel: 640,000 First-Time Voters May Decide 12 Knesset Seats

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, for a Knesset election where first-time voters are expected to hold disproportionate influence. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 eligible citizens between the ages of 18 and 22 will cast ballots. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. The Institute projects that their collective choices could determine the outcome for as many as 12 of the 120 seats in the Knesset.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency earlier this month that she intends to vote to change the future of the country. She spoke at a Tel Aviv event where more than 1,000 first-time voters gathered to hear from political leaders. Many attendees were in pre-military service programs. Chernyvsky, who is training in the Negev, blames Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government for current national problems. She said she will likely support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties are part of the opposition change bloc seeking to remove Netanyahu, who has served continuously since 2009 except for a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, stated that the institute co-sponsored the Tel Aviv event with the Yigal Allon Center. She noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. Hoffman said that if turnout among this demographic is high, as their research suggests, these new voters will make a difference in the election results.

In May, the Israel Democracy Institute surveyed prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters. The data showed that between 80% and 95% of respondents across all groups said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth reported the highest certainty. Among Arab respondents, 87% intended to vote. This compares with a youth turnout of 47% in the 2024 United States presidential election, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, while another 19% thought they would.

National security and the cost of living ranked as the top issues for both Jewish and Arab respondents in the surveys. Hoffman said these priorities are not surprising. She noted that these young people attended junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of October 7. She stated that they are worried about their future.

Political leanings among this group remain mixed. Hoffman observed that Jewish Israeli voters have generally moved rightward over the past two decades. However, she said military service can sometimes shift views leftward by prompting questions about the war and its objectives. An N12 poll conducted on September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% described themselves as left-wing or center-left. In that same poll, 16% said they would vote for Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud.

Hoffman added that mock elections held in high schools showed most students supporting Yashar and Beyachad. Beyachad is led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. These schools showed some support for Likud but little support for the far-right party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Individual voters display a wide range of preferences. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to back the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He disagrees with Smotrich's approach in Gaza but supports his West Bank policies, stating that Israel needs to be strong and secure. His program-mate Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzeliyah, will vote for the change bloc. Shiloh wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs.

A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M due to IDF anonymity regulations, cited universal service as his top priority. He said he will vote for the Democrats primarily for economic reasons, citing the costs of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that will close resource gaps in Arab communities and tackle crime. He said he is urging friends to vote and added that he will not leave the country regardless of the result, stating that it is his land and home.