Goldknopf and Bennett hold sway over Israel's final seat count

Yitzhak Goldknopf leads Agudat Yisrael, a three-member haredi faction that holds potential sway over the composition of Israel's next government. With voting set to begin less than 24 hours from the time of this report, political figures in the establishment are evaluating whether Goldknopf's bloc will offer backing to a government led by the current opposition. This potential support hinges on specific budgetary agreements, a move that could still require votes from Arab parties to reach a stable majority.

The idea of cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and opposition leaders is not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction explored fresh political options, including possible cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. Those talks occurred during a period of friction within United Torah Judaism. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition's behavior, while the rival faction Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando added to the uncertainty by writing a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a distinct obstacle in any shift toward the opposition. His voter base is largely identified with the Right. Assessments indicate that any visible support for a change bloc government could push some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic creates a risk for Goldknopf as he weighs the stability of a new coalition against the loyalty of his constituents.

Attention also turns to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither bloc wins a majority large enough to govern, Bennett could determine the shape of the next government. One scenario raised in political circles involves Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led government if neither side reaches the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority. This is viewed as a remote scenario, though some believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc capable of taking such a step given his background on the Right.

A similar move by Avigdor Liberman has been mentioned, particularly because he previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu-led government. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is far from such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. The question of which politician might be willing to move their political base could become a central issue in coalition negotiations. For now, these remain scenarios and political assessments rather than agreements reached between the parties.